What if neither OEMs nor tech companies become the automotive winners?

By Pierre Renhult, Automotive Industry Partner, Nexer

We often frame the conversation as a competition between traditional automotive manufacturers (OEMs) and technology companies, when discussing the future of the automotive industry. Will the so-called winners be OEMs or software companies? Although it’s an understandable question, I believe it’s the wrong one. Because the answer may be neither.

In the latest edition of the Code over Chrome report created by Nexer and Kairos Future, we explored how the automotive industry could evolve towards 2035. In our discussions with industry leaders, experts and innovators, we reached the conclusion that the future winners may be ecosystem orchestrators.

Value networks instead of value chains
For more than a century, success in automotive was largely determined by who could design, manufacture and scale the best vehicles. Competitive advantage came from engineering excellence, production capacity and control over the value chain.

That model is now changing. Value is increasingly created across networks rather than within individual organisations. Software platforms, AI capabilities, cloud infrastructure, battery technologies, mobility services, data ecosystems and regulatory requirements are becoming interconnected.

No single company can master all of these domains alone. The companies that succeed will therefore not necessarily be those that own the most assets or develop the most technology internally. They will be the ones that can bring together the right partners, capabilities and technologies faster than their competitors.

Why orchestration is becoming a competitive advantage
In other words, the challenge is becoming orchestration. This was a recurring theme during both our Code over Chrome discussions and the Business by the Docks forum in Gothenburg. Industry leaders repeatedly highlighted the growing importance of partnerships, ecosystem thinking and collaboration across traditional boundaries.

The shift is already underway
We can already see the shift happening. The development of autonomous mobility depends on cooperation between vehicle manufacturers, software developers, AI specialists, infrastructure providers, cloud platforms and regulators. The transition to software-defined and increasingly AI-enabled vehicles requires continuous collaboration across industries that historically operated separately.

A new leadership challenge
Even customer value is increasingly created through integrated experiences rather than standalone products. And as a result, leadership priorities has to evolve too. Organisations have to think about how they can create an ecosystem that can innovate, learn and adapt faster than anyone else rather than how to build everything on their own. This requires new capabilities and leaders who can build trust between partners, align different incentives and create shared momentum around common goals.

Europe’s opportunity
It also requires a mindset shift. Historically, competitive advantage often came from protecting knowledge and controlling resources. The future competitive advantage may increasingly come from collaboration and collective learning. I think this is particularly important for Europe. Europe possesses world-class engineering expertise, strong industrial foundations and some of the world’s most advanced automotive ecosystems. The opportunity isn’t necessarily to outspend the United States or outscale China. It’s about becoming better at connecting capabilities, organisations and ideas into effective ecosystems.